CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST – TALKING POINTS:
- Crude oil has climbed practically 40 % to this point this yr in response OPEC slashing manufacturing to revive provide and demand imbalances with additional cuts nonetheless on the desk
- Downward revisions to world financial progress forecasts proceed to mount, nonetheless, which threatens bullish market sentiment and demand for crude oil
- Check out this text on How to Trade Crude Oil or take a look at these Top Crude Oil Facts to develop your buying and selling information
- Obtain the DailyFX Q2 Oil Forecast for our complete outlook
Searching for a technical perspective on Crude Oil? Take a look at the Weekly Crude Technical Forecast.
Crude oil continued its ascent this previous week with costs gaining one other 0.eight %. Turmoil in Libya and ongoing pressure in Venezuela seemingly weighed positively on crude seeing that the 2 international locations are main oil exporters. Battle between the US and Iran might have additionally helped enhance oil costs contemplating the danger of President Trump extending Iranian restrictions.
CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 28, 2018 TO APRIL 12, 2019)
The newest IEA report indicated a hefty drop in oil inventories over February which is probably going one other issue contributing to the climb in oil costs. But, majority of the aforementioned info is backward-looking or already baked into present costs.
On a less-brighter observe, the World Trade Organization recently slashed its estimates for 2019 economic growth by a staggering 1.1 %. Considerations over a further-deteriorating economic system have been subsequently echoed by the Worldwide Financial Fund in its updated World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Reports which struck a cautionary tone and lower GDP progress expectations from 3.5 % to three.Three %.
Though, these developments relating to slower world progress appear to have gone unnoticed by threat belongings and the oil market – eerily because it did on the finish of 2018 previous to the widespread selloff. Furthermore, information out that Russia has shied away from committing to increase oil manufacturing cuts together with OPEC might additionally weigh adversely on crude costs if this threat materializes.
That being mentioned, the risk-reward proposition for oil bulls has grown more and more much less engaging with crude now eclipsing $63/bbl. Crude oil outlook stays impartial, nonetheless, because of upcoming seasonality results that usually boosts oil costs along with uncertainty surrounding additional OPEC provide cuts.
Whether or not you’re a new or skilled dealer, DailyFX has a number of assets out there that will help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and academic webinars held daily; buying and selling guides that will help you enhance buying and selling efficiency, and even one for many who are new to FX buying and selling.
– Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX
– Comply with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter